North America: Economic overview

The region comprises three countries: the United States, Canada and Mexico. Collectively they are a large and affluent market.

North America is an important market for UK food exports. Average GDP per capita is among the highest globally, at close to $51,600 in 2024 (International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook).

The US economy dominates the region and has performed strongly in recent years. However, GDP growth is slowing: according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it is expected to be 2.0% in 2025, compared to 2021 when the US GDP grew by 5.7%.

Over the past few years, high inflation, the cost-of-living crisis and conflict around the world has impacted growth globally.

Table 1 shows GDP growth for North America, by country. It shows subdued growth across all three countries.

In 2025 the USA has also been impacted by increased tariffs, trade uncertainty, persistent inflation and a weakening labour market which has reduced consumer spending power and impacted growth in the country.

Table 1.  Real GDP growth for North America (year-on-year % change)

(f) = forecast change

Source: IMF, October 2025

In latest estimates (September 2025), the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts the US population to grow from 350 million in 2025 to 367 million in 2055. This growth is lower than previous estimates, mainly due to a downward revision in net immigration and fertility rates.

Statistics Canada has carried out population projections under three scenarios with different population growth outcomes between 2024 and 2074:

• Low growth – Canadian population increases from 40.3 million to 45.2 million
• Medium growth – Canadian population increases from 40.3 million to 59.3 million
• High growth – Canadian population increases from 40.3 million to 80.8 million

Apart from the high growth scenario, the forecast annual rate of population growth is expected to be less than the average rate of growth for the past 30 years (1.19%). Migration is cited as the driver of population increases for all scenarios.

UN estimates project Mexico’s population to grow from 130.9 million in 2024 to a peak of 149 million in 2050 (under a medium-growth projection scenario). Lower fertility rates, higher life expectancy and an ageing population are factors contributing to population decline after 2050.

Routes to market – To come